SpawnPoint - Where Game Begins

Al-Zarqawi's Death -- so - is going to matter?

It is a moral victory but will have little impact on the ground.

The short term effect will likely be an increase in attacks by Al-Qaida in Iraq as they work to show the world that they cannot be stopped by the death of Al-Zaqawi. There will probably include a notable rise in suicide attacks by followers wanting to prove their loalty and bravery so that they can join thier "martyred" leader in Heaven.
With 7 of his top aids also being killed in the airstrike there is going to be a power vaccume in the leadership of Al-Qaida in Iraq, the effects of which we will probably begin to see in anywhere from 2 to 4 weeks. This will go one of two ways: 1) brief turmoil with some internal purging 2) more prolonged turmoil with monewhat more extensive internal purging as well as attacks on civilians thought to be working against them. Due to the fact that it was leaked there were informants involved in pinpointing the location of Al-Zarqawi and his aids, at least some internal violence is guaranteed.
One of the factors that will effect both the duration of the transition to new leadership and who takes over as the leader of Al-Qaida in Iraq will be how long it takes for BinLaden to release a statement and what he says when he does release a statement. With the loss of Al-Zarqawi he can't afford to stay silent on the matter despite the risks associated with releasing a new communication because doing so threatens not only the standing of Al-Qaida in Iraq but also his personal standing and image. If he releases a communication quickly and names a successor to Al-Zarqawi the transition will be relatively quick and smooth. If he does not name a successor in his communication it would signal that he accepts at least a certain degree of internal strife and that the most capable will rise to the top through God's blessing. Either way, the image of Al-Zarqawi as a martyr will be used extensively both to boost morale and to aid with recruitment of new members.

Of course, there is also a third possibility. It is possible (but very unlikely) that there will be a prolonged and violent power struggle within Al-Qaida's ranks that will divide the group and anger the Iraqi population to the point of retributive violence over the number of Iraqis caught up in and killed over the internal division. This is the best case scenario for the USA and the Coalition Government, and the one we can expect Bush to hype and try to get people to focus on in order to boost his ratings. Unfortunately, it is the least likely.

Don't know if this guys death will change much in Iraq. But I'm glad he's dead.

That is not something I say lightly. He was just a blood thirsty monster as far as I'm concerned.

I can understand the motivation behind attacks on US/UK (I don't agree but I can imagine) but this guy wanted to start a race war. He was actually an embarassment and disgrace to his cause after his followers blew up that hotel that was hosting a muslim wedding.

Hope the US tell everyone where his grave is so the people of Iraq can line up and piss on his grave.

Interesting comment from Stratfor

The Sunnis have also known that if their position within the new Iraqi government is to be formalized and cemented, they would have to rein in al-Zarqawi and his jihadist allies. If they do not, there was no deal.

It strikes us as far more than a coincidence that within hours of the confirmation of al-Zarqawi's death, the Iraqi Parliament put the finishing touches on the new Iraqi government. Baghdad now sports an internationally acceptable, domestically chosen government that includes participation from all of the major sectarian groups.

Al-Zarqawi was attacked by two F-16s, each of which dropped a 500-pound bomb, not by a Hellfire missile launched from a Predator drone. Predators are dual intelligence-gathering/assassination tools. Pairs of F-16s are more likely to be used when there is pre-existing intelligence that results in a tasking. U.S. forces selected their weapon very carefully to be low on fragmentation or fire to maximize the chances of the quick recovery of an easily identifiable corpse. Al-Zarqawi was not found, he was sold out. A political deal was made, and the Sunnis have delivered on their end.

The only question remaining is how many other jihadists have 500-pound bombs in their immediate future?

I think it was a great job by the US. Isreal perfected this type of combat and it works. We are catching a lot of flack from Iraqi and the world for collatreral damage. Lets see what kind of negativity the world cn come up with now..I personallythink we have been in Iraq long enough. It's time for them (the Iraqi's) to stand up and walk the walk. I dont realy care if they have a democracy or not. They can have Sadham back if they want. Who cares. Why should we rebuild their sewers so they can flush their toilets. Thats their problem. In the meantime...we keep kicking ass until we leave and not be riding around the streets making targets of our marines so some guy in his housecan takepot shots as Americans ride by..and then bitch if they get their asses shot up.

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...you've got to be kidding me? Of course they're extremely organized. Took almost 5 years to catch 1 guy where we have hundreds of thousands of troops and massive amounts of intel.

I hear the good guys (US ) had al-zarqawi in their sights at least ten times but wanted to make sure to get him. They were afraid ofcollateral damage or making a mistake. Those guys dont have to worry about that. They can make all the mistakes they want. I believe if the USever takesthe gloves off for real...look out. I doubt that will ever happen though. You have to many bleeding hearts who want to see Irq's toilets working again. Nice guys finish last. You cant fight a war and not kill anyone. You also won't do that well if you have a lot of complainers like zol. It's easy to knock the job they are doing...In spite of the idiots that are running the show. I read that the Amnerican fighting man is the fiercest soldier in the world. We loose our battles politically from with in..not on the battle fields.

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Last time I heard we had lost 2500 (on the news)....how is that thousands among thousands....AND these were not all lost just chasing after individual people...unless of course you want to play symantics...The news today had the insurgent population estimate at 20,000....if you consider some of the tactics used to defeat these kind of people, house to house and other tactics, is kind of like like that I guess...*sarcasm* Some people are not going to be satisfied until a nuke goes off from a terrorist attack in the US, then they might want action. Undoubtablly, these will be the same people wanting to launch an investigation into why we didn't stop it while we had the chance. It is easy to sit there and criticize policy when, I'm sure, that you don't have all the facts....no of us do. When the liberals quit saying "It's just wrong" and start giving us a plan to leave Iraq that doesn't lead to a civil war, then I will listen. We all know there is a problem, but how is there going to be a solution without a plan?....oddly enough, President Bush is getting criticized for not having a plan from the very people that don't either.

Just a little question that I've never seen asked in the news:

How many Afgans and Iraqis have died since the invasions?

Ok so I have heard some rough estimates, but doesn't the fact that no one is counting bother anyone?

I believed the Military is not getting involved in "Body Counts". We had that during the Vietnam war and it didnt help anything. You can believe the Americans arent taking hits without pushing back hard. As they should. I still dont believe that this war is any of our business any more. We toppled Sadhams army and now we should leave. If the Taliban comes back and becomes a problem for us again the USA could always kick ass again. We shoudnt be staying there for the Iraqi security or to get their toilets working. Not our problem.