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shift944
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Posts: 475
Koreas
Posted: Nov 24, 2010, 20:03:31
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With tensions and unprovoked violence growing every day, its not hard to imagine war reigniting between the North and South anytime now. And from most standpoints, it doesn't look very good for South Korea at the moment, thankfully we can count on the temporary willingness/due caution (hopefully not dangerously blind ignorance) to resolve by the United States and regional allies, or thousands of people would be dying or dead by now.

But while the North may have numbers and devotion (hard to tell really) I do have faith in the ROK Military, being some of the worlds finest soldiers, along with 28,000 U.S. troops.

I think one of the biggest decisive factors is China, and it will be extremely interesting how their stance develops. I do not think they will continue to tolerate much more of the random violence from the North, but they are hesitant to talk much with anybody on the matter really, even though they are one of the biggest decisive factors in how this all turns out.

Another thing that interests me is the N. Korean population in general. A few scattered reports show civilians are confident in their military and quick to diss neighboring powers. Its also difficult to say if this is genuine or if they are just plain scared or completely oblivious as to whats going on at all. And should war break out, will they stand up to the government that has oppressed them for the last 50+ years, or continue to live in submission and just try to escape the violence?

A lot of questions, most of which I hope never have to be answered, but it is something every person living in a developed country should pay attention to, because if shit hits the fan everybody's going to be feeling it.

Regards.



P.S. Another props to those troops and everybody below that DMZ, I don't think I or very many other people have what it takes to be standing in their shoes right now.
Last Edited: Nov 25, 2010, 00:06:03

cpnichol
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Posts: 5684
Re: Koreas
Posted: Nov 25, 2010, 07:07:43
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I'm not really sure what motivates N. Korea, a lot of the time I think they are just testing to see what happens or to try and remind the world they are still a threat to gain aid and concessions at the negotiating table. That seems to have been what has happening for a while now, but with the prospect of a change in power in N Korea it's difficult to be sure if that is still the case.

Unless the next guy in charge believes their own hype it is difficult to see what they could gain from going to war and clear that they would risk the fall of their regime. Or perhaps if it became clear their regime was going to fall without a war they may get desperate and do something stupid.

I don't think China has any interest in conflict, directly or indirectly, they rely heavily on trade and I doubt they would want to risk having a democracy or US troops on their borders if N. Korea fell.

The people of N. Korea are told that they are better off than everywhere else, so even when poor and starving they still think they would be worse off if they lived anywhere else. There is no other media, only what the state tells them, combine that with an extremely oppressive police state, secret police and everyone being encouraged to report family, friends and neighbours and it is a pretty effective system.

I highly recommend this article. It's a remarkable and moving insight into what life is like for ordinary N. Koreans and covers what happened during the famine from the point of view of a school teacher. It also covers how she escaped to the South.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/northkorea/7249849/North-Korea-secrets-and-lies.html

shift944
Board Admin
Posts: 475
Re: Koreas
Posted: Nov 26, 2010, 12:19:34
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Here they go again, unprovoked attacks that the state media continues to blame us for. As if THEY are the victim here.

If only the civilian population really knew what was going on, I still find it unbelievable that China has hardly attempted to restrain North Korea, and that we are only just beginning to have input from Russia. Now I suppose its just a tortuously dreadful wait until the day we all wake up to read that full-blown war has broken out.

Pyongyang is ACHING for war, and I hope they get every last bit that they deserve from it, and that waste of a country is no longer around for future generations to worry about.

http://www.aolnews.com/world/article/north-korea-warns-region-on-brink-of-war/19734022

Phil that article reminds me of a episode that aired on NatGeo a few years ago, its chilling to even have a glimpse into what happens every day there...

Nitivity
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Posts: 104
Re: Koreas
Posted: Nov 26, 2010, 14:51:03
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Don't forget one of the main reasons, North Korea has an nuclear arsenal.
Invading NK can result into a world wide disaster.

One of the things I admire is how NK can survive for that long without proper "legal" trading of food/tech and earth minerals, I beleive China have some influence on that but that is just a guess.

The borders of South & North are the heaviest guarded borders on the world, that gives tensions and I couldn't imagine if there weren't any.
Am wondering how the new Kim Jong will govern the country.
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