Russia Faces Fresh Condemnation

[Raven]

Seven of the world's leading industrialised nations have jointly condemned Russia's decision to recognise Georgia's breakaway regions.

Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the US and UK said Moscow's recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia violated Georgia's integrity and sovereignty.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy meanwhile described Russia's move to recognise South Ossetia and Abkhazia as an unacceptable attempt to change borders.

In a statement, the Group of Seven said they condemned "the action of our fellow G8 member" and reasserted their support for the Georgian government.

The group called unanimously on the Russian government to implement in full the six-point peace plan brokered by President Sarkozy on behalf of the EU, in particular to withdraw its forces behind the pre-conflict lines.

Georgia moved to reduce its diplomatic presence in Moscow, confirming its ambassador would not return

China addressed the crisis for the first time by expressing "concern" about developments in the region and urging dialogue. The comments came as Chinese President Hu Jintao met President Medvedev in Tajikistan ahead of a regional summit

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the continued presence of Russian forces in Georgia proper was a grave ceasefire violation. She also agreed to send up to 15 military observers to Georgia as part of an expanded OSCE mission.

Based on the above up to date events doyou reckon the Russians will be forced to withdraw from the occupied "breakaway" states or do you reckon they'll stay thus causing a major political "problem" that could lead to further escalations?

Comments.....

[rifiki]

The issue is what is going to happen to force Russia back??

The US is streched thin militarly and I don't see those other countries sending millitary force to deal with it especially since it is a real military to deal with.

It is only going to be codemnation and words being thrown around. Russia also holds a wild card since they are a producer of oil (I want to say the biggest non-OPEC but not sure) so they can always drop that on countries. Dont see much changing the Russian will.

[AwptimusPrime]

Originally Posted by rifiki

The issue is what is going to happen to force Russia back??

The US is streched thin militarly and I don't see those other countries sending millitary force to deal with it especially since it is a real military to deal with.

It is only going to be codemnation and words being thrown around. Russia also holds a wild card since they are a producer of oil (I want to say the biggest non-OPEC but not sure) so they can always drop that on countries. Dont see much changing the Russian will.

I agree 100% with Rifiki; By watching the news and such, it seems that only the U.S. has made an effort to bring relief to Georgia and at the same time military suuport. Even still I doubt any major conflicts will occur, because as Rifiki stated, Russia has its oil.

[Raven]

Actually,

One of the main oil pipelines to the west passes through southern Georgia which Russia receives no revenue from at all any more....

Perhaps this was what they were aiming for? Don't be so sure that other NATO countries will not send military aid to Georgia.

I'll be interested to see what happens if Russia refuses to withdraw to its original borders.

[dwinx]

I read an op-ed piece in our local paper about someone involved in the original NATO sactions against Russia after the USSR broke down. There is a loophole, which pretty much allows Russia to occupy any area such as Georgia if they feel threatened. The language is vague enough that Russia can probably keep hanging out as long as they do not keep shelling people.

The upside is that this type of stuff makes Russia's neighbors wary and more likely to listen to the G8 powers on issues of security/the missle shield that Russia is so pissed off about.

[rifiki]

Speaking about NATO and Georgia, one of the main reason's Georgia felt like Russia attacked was because of the idea thrown out their that NATO would allow Georgia to join. The Georgian president blasted NATO when he and Secretary Rice meet about saying that Georgia could join but not acting on that leaving them out to dry. This situation will be dicy and can end in many ways.

[Raven]

Actually tt the Bucharest Summit in April 2008, NATO Allies welcomed Ukraine's and Georgia's Euro-Atlantic aspirations for membership and agreed that these countries will become members of NATO.

They also agreed that both nations have made valuable contributions to Alliance operations and welcomed democratic reforms in Ukraine and Georgia.

The Membership Action Plan (MAP) is the next step for the two countries on their direct way to membership.

Allies made clear that they support Georgia's and Ukraine's applications for MAP. Allies also said NATO will now begin a period of intensive engagement with both countries at high political level to address the questions still outstanding regarding their MAP applications. NATO Foreign Ministers were asked to make a first assessment of progress at their December 2008 meeting.

So Georgia joining NATO was conditional on numerous things and it's commonly known that the next step would not happen until 2009.

Also the (MAP) is not an easy process to fulfill. The MAP’s main features are the submission by aspiring members of individual annual national programmes on their preparations for possible future membership, covering political, economic, defence, resource, security and legal aspects. A focused and candid feedback mechanism on aspirant countries' progress on their programmes that includes both political and technical advice, as well as annual meetings between all NATO members and individual aspirants at the level of the North Atlantic Council to assess progress. And a defence planning approach for aspirants which includes elaboration and review of agreed planning targets.

I find it funny that NATO invites Georgia and Ukraine to begin the application process in April 2008. Russia declares (in April 2008) that "NATO membership for the two former Soviet republics would bring instability in the region" and suddenly in August it "annexes" two Georgian states........

[brianfantastic]

Originally Posted by Raven

Actually,

One of the main oil pipelines to the west passes through southern Georgia which Russia receives no revenue from at all any more....

Perhaps this was what they were aiming for? Don't be so sure that other NATO countries will not send military aid to Georgia.

I'll be interested to see what happens if Russia refuses to withdraw to its original borders.

NATO is not the super-power it once was. Which is why russia is testing its bounderies, they know that the military (worldwide) is stretched with only really the US and UK prepared to do ANYTHING in the world theatre. Although russia's weapons are outdated, i dont think they should be under-estimated as a force to be reckoned with for the simple reason that it only takes a mad man with his finger on a button to do something awful. And russia has 2 madmen and a lot of buttons for them to jab at... Im genuinley concerned about the short and long term future of europe. Cold war is an ugly phrase. But we could be looking at the next one.

[volmer]

Originally Posted by Raven

Actually,
I'll be interested to see what happens if Russia refuses to withdraw to its original borders.

When the war cooled down and Russia promised to withdraw its troops... They've promised to do it 5 times already and its been almost 2 weeks already.

And Brian,
The only reason people think that NATO can't face Russia is because they don't have faith in it. Russia is an unstable and oversized nation, having a hard time keeping their s**t together. And you think NATO nations can't stand up against them?

[Raven]

Whether NATO can or cannot stand up to Russia is a moot point.

I'd really rather not find out if you get my meaning.......

[brianfantastic]

Originally Posted by Raven

Whether NATO can or cannot stand up to Russia is a moot point.

I'd really rather not find out if you get my meaning.......

im with you there captain. Thats the last thing the world needs right now, another war to fight regaurdless of who's on what side.

[White-Pinnacle]

NATO is not a superpower, it is an alliance. Frankly, I don't have much confidence in NATO. If there is a war between NATO and Russia, that would be extremely bad for everyone . . . I seriously doubt if that will happen.

It makes sense that Russia annexed South Ossetia and Abkhazia. The Russian constitution has that loophole mentioned in a previous post that the Russian President can use military force to protect Russian citizens. Guess what, the populations in the two provinces have Russian passports. It also makes sense for the Russians to test the threshold on the NATO countries and determine what the reaction is regarding the invasion or should I say counterattack . . . similarities with Hitler and Germany annexing the Sudentenland in 1938. The Europeans basically folded and let Hitler do whatever he wanted . . . appeasement.

What is the West i.e. U.S., U.K., France, Germany, NATO, going to do? Rattle the political saber that's what! Basically nothing. When you have boots on the ground with weapons occupying territory you're in control. The West can't afford to cause a major conflict over Georgia. Georgia is isolated geographically. One of the Spawnpoint admins that I played with was in the Special Forces and provided training to countries in the Black Sea because of the vast oil potential in the area. Some of the pictures that I've seen has Georgian military being outfitted with U.S. equipment. Maybe this is an effort by the U.S. government to open up another avenue of oil source for the West so the West isn't so dependent on the oil from the volatile Middle East. . . how ironic. Hitler was trying to obtain the Caucasus because of oil during WW2.

It will be interesting to see what kind of relation between the Russian and former Warsaw Pact countries i.e. Ukraine, Lithuania, Estonia, etc. NATO has been expanding to the Russian border since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Why shouldn't the Russians push back? They have every reason to do so. I bet the Ukrainians are nervous since the Russian fleet (naval personnel, families) is based on Ukrainian territory. Maybe the Russians will use the same pretext and invade Ukraine as well.

White Pinnacle